numbers, not adjectives — D. J. C. MacKay
10 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) per capita
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are the primary vehicle by which the UNFCCC COP process elicit promisses from the Paris Agreement parties about their future emissions.
However, NDCs are often reported relative to previous years, and the size of nations differ, making comparisons difficult. Below NDC 2.0, for 2030 are plotted and tabled in standardised units of tons of CO2e per capita per year to enable meaningful comparisons.
And in tabular format, including a short description of the standardisation performed.
| Region | Population (millions) | NDC 2.0 (tCO2e/cap) | paraphrased NDC text (estimates from outside NDC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | 90.6 | not party to the Paris Agreement | |
| Iraq | 45.1 | no clear CO2e target | |
| Egypt | 114.5 | no clear CO2e target | |
| China | 1422.6 | 18.1 | reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 65 percent by 2030, from 2005 (2005 GDP $2.286tn, CO2e 7211 Mt; est 2030 GDP: $17.758tn in 2023 + 4% pa growth) |
| UAE | 10.6 | 17.2 | 19% reduction, base 2019: 2030 target CO2e 182 Mt |
| Australia | 21.8 | 16.2 | 43% below 2005: net CO2e 621.1 Mt |
| Russia | 145.4 | 15.0 | reduction to 70% of 1990: CO2e 3100 Mt |
| Saudi Arabia | 32.3 | 13.7 | 278 MtCO2e reduction from 2019 (2019 CO2e 721 Mt) |
| Canada | 39.3 | 11.1 | CO2e 438 Mt |
| US | 343.5 | 9.6 | 50% below 2005 (2005 net CO2e 6587 Mt) |
| South Korea | 51.7 | 8.4 | 40% reduction from 2018, CO2e 728 Mt |
| Turkey | 87.3 | 8.0 | CO2e 695 Mt |
| Vietnam | 100.4 | 7.8 | unconditional 15.8% reduction from BAU CO2e 927.9 Mt |
| Argentina | 45.5 | 7.7 | CO2e 349 Mt |
| South Africa | 63.2 | 6.6 | upper limit CO2e 420 Mt |
| Japan | 124.4 | 6.1 | CO2e 760 Mt |
| EU | 447.6 | 5.7 | 55% below 1990 (1990 CO2e 5650.4 Mt) |
| Pakistan | 247.5 | 5.5 | 15% unconditional reduction from BAU CO2e 1603 Mt |
| Brazil | 221.1 | 5.4 | CO2e 1200 Mt |
| Thailand | 71.7 | 5.4 | 30% below BAU CO2e 555 Mt |
| Mexico | 129.7 | 5.0 | 35% reduction from 991 MtCO2e baseline |
| Azerbaijan | 10.3 | 5.0 | 35% reduction base 1990 CO2e 79 Mt |
| India | 1438.1 | 4.4 | reduce emissions intensity of GDP by 45 percent by 2030, from 2005 (2005 GDP $820bn, CO2e 1585.5 Mt; est 2030 GDP $7.3tn) |
| Indonesia | 281.2 | 4.4 | CO2e 1240 Mt |
| UK | 68.7 | 3.8 | 68% below 1990 (1990 CO2e 812 Mt) |
| Malaysia | 35.1 | 2.9 | 45% reduction of GDP intensity by 2030 from 2005 (2005 GDP $143.5bn, CO2e 44.2 Mt; est 2030 GDP $492.9bn in 2025 + 4% pa growth) |
| Ethiopia | 128.7 | 2.7 | unconditional 14% reduction of BAU CO2e 403.5 Mt |
| Bangladesh | 171.5 | 2.2 | CO2e 27.56 Mt reduction from BAU CO2e 409.41 Mt |
| Nigeria | 227.9 | 1.6 | unconditional 20% reduction of BAU CO2e 453 Mt |